06-21-2016 09:34 AM - edited 08-03-2021 01:28 PM
Time series forecasting is using a model to predict future values based on previously observed values.In a time series forecast, the prediction is based on history and we are assuming the future will resemble the past. We project current trends using existing data.
The following is a high-level description of the two pre-packaged time series methodologies our predictive tools support:
ARIMA is the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averageandis the most commonly used forecasting approach
ETSmodel uses exponential smoothing method andis a commonly used forecasting approach based on a weighted average of past observations with the weights declining in size for more distant past values. In short, all past values are factored in the forecast although with decreasing importance as the values are further back in time.
Additionally the video walks you through how to confirm the completeness of your data using the Field Summary tool and shows you how to use TS Compare the two analyze the error levels of the forecasting methods.
Time Series is comprised of a variety of tools within Alteryx, which are part of the standard Alteryx Designer License. Alteryx customers use predictive analytics to identify patterns found in historical and transactional data to identify risks as well as opportunities. Alteryx Predictive analytic tools are built on Open source R. Alteryx users are not required to know R to execute predictive models because all of the models in Alteryx are packaged into easy-to-use macro tools that only require configuration. All predictive tools are macros, and therefore not a “black box”. Macros provide the user with the flexibility to open all models and dissect the logic, as well as see and modify the R-script(s) being executed.
This video provides a brief tutorial of using Times Series tools on historical single family home sales and includes an overview on how to configure the following tools:
Field Summary, ARIMA, ETS, TS Compare, and TS Forecast
The following article actually provides a better modelfrom the same data used in the Alteryx demo...
http://www.autobox.com/cms/index.php/blog/entry/alteryx-forecast-package
Best
Hey everyone,
I use Trial version of Alteryx Designer (11.0)
Does it come with time series tools, I don't find it, if yes, how do I configure it.
Thanks..
have you installed the predictive capabilities? It's asked at the beginning of the installation
if you may want to install R as well...
Check out here; http://downloads.alteryx.com/predictive.html
By the way I recommend you to download 11.5...
If you have a period in your data where there was no activity, do you have to feed a row with a value of 0 or does the tool account for this ?
You have to decide on what to do with missing data,
then you can fix it with a formula tool...
Most common approach is;
"last observation carried forward, You both preserve the last known value and prevent any look-ahead bias"
Other options are imputing;
mode (Summarize tool)
or replacing null with random observations from timely previous observations (random selection tool used on date filtered data)
Best
In my case it is not "missing" data just in that period there was no activity so i would not want to impute as you suggest.
My query is more that in these cases do i need to feed the tool a value for 0 for period that there was no activity or does it automatically assume this is the case?
used the same data you used and the same workflow but in my case the ETS tools shows better result when compared with the Arima tool any idea which caused these different results?? maybe different versions of alteryx ?
Ellie,
For the no activity period
About the different results,
Best
Hi, I got the same results as Elie when I just walked through the project. My parameters for both seem to be the same.
Arima: Sales, Monthly
Nothing selected for Model Customization
Other Options I selected 12 for the number of periods.
ETS: Sales, Monthly
Model types are all Auto
Other Options: Auto for model selection, and 12 months for forecast plot (US for weeks) and didn't check any of the boxes.
I didn't look at or change the other tabs.