Time Series Forecasting

[Miles_Waller]

Hi Everyone,

The topic I'm getting tripped up on right now is forecasting future sales rep commissions based on total sales amounts. I am not super familiar with the R Predictive Tools so I would appreciate some help. How do I go about doing this?

Note that in the output, I am more concerned about an estimated total sales rep commission amount than I am about an estimated distributor sales amount, but if I can get both that would be great.

Thanks!

Here is the example fake data:

Input (Historical Data):

Quarter	Total Distributor Sales ($)	Total Sales Rep Commission Amount
2021-Q1	100000000	575000
2021-Q2	105000000	590000
2021-Q3	105000000	600000
2021-Q4	125000000	650000
2022-Q1	106000000	700000
2022-Q2	95000000	650000
2022-Q3	120000000	750000
2022-Q4	130000000	700000
2023-Q1	121000000	800000

Desired Output (Forecast):

Quarter	Total Distributor Sales ($)	Total Sales Rep Commission Amount
2023-Q2
2023-Q3
2023-Q4
2024-Q1
2024-Q2
2024-Q3
2024-Q4

[mceleavey]

Hi @Miles_Waller ,

the best way for you to get started with this is to try the example workflows using the AMIRA and ETS tools. You can access this by right-clicking on either one and selecting "open example":

This will walk you through how they work.

You have the data in the right format, in that each row represents the time series element (period) you wish to predict.

There are more resources here:

https://help.alteryx.com/20231/designer/time-series

https://community.alteryx.com/t5/Alteryx-Designer-Desktop-Knowledge-Base/Performing-Time-Series-Fore...

https://help.alteryx.com/2018.3/ToolCategories/TimeSeries.htm

I hope this helps,

M.