Time Series Forecasting

[aesham]

Hello,

I am trying to forecast next year's consumption of select brands of beer.  I have 13 annual periods of data.  I want to forecast the next's years based on the historical periods.  I need to do this for each brand.  

Based on the training videos and other posts, I know I want an ARIMA model.

When I do this, however, the output I receive is for all brands combined.  This is the output I am looking to produce; each historical year plus the forecasted year to the far right.

Brand	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	Estimate 2017
Samuel Adams Boston Lager	5,522	5,522	5,522	6,076	6,401	6,491	6,640	6,806	7,010	7,185	7,374	7,598	7,771	7,851
Sierra Nevada Pale Ale	2,390	2,390	2,390	2,437	2,372	2,562	2,780	3,052	3,302	3,269	3,425	3,548	3,723	3,880
Fat Tire Amber Ale	1,770	1,770	1,770	1,843	1,880	2,178	2,457	2,688	2,747	2,659	2,926	2,986	3,103	3,471
Shiner Bock	1,328	1,328	1,328	1,439	1,522	1,580	1,700	1,839	1,970	2,063	2,174	2,310	2,435	2,550
Total Craft Beer	53,303	53,303	53,303	53,303	53,303	57,895	64,125	74,189	85,282	94,492	105,643	120,528	137,697	138,851

An earlier post had the same issue and the solution offered was to use the TS Factory Tool.  I've downloaded the Predictive tool set but can find no TS Factory Tools.

Any help would be appreciated.  My workbook is attached.  I can do this in Tableau but would rather do in Alteryx.

Thank you, Andrew

[AmeliaG]

Hi @aesham,

Thanks for your question! They are  not in the predictive download, but you can download the TS Factory forecast tools from the Alteryx Analytics Gallery. 

I've linked them below:

TS Model Factory

TS Forecast Factory

TS Factory Sample

Hope you have a great day!

Amelia

[aesham]

Thanks for the links Amelia.

It's pretty deep for me; hoping someone can help me out with the solution.  I've posted the desired output.

[AmeliaG · Accepted solution]

Hi @aesham,

I built off of your original example to show you how to set up the factory model tools. They are very similar to the regular tools, except in the model factory you add a "Grouping" field. This grouping field in your case is brand. This will create a separate forecast for each brand. You can think of grouping as "for each". 

Hope this helps!

Amelia

[AmeliaG]

Hi @aesham,

I built off of your original example to show you how to set up the factory model tools. They are very similar to the regular tools, except in the model factory you add a "Grouping" field. This grouping field in your case is brand. This will create a separate forecast for each brand. You can think of grouping as "for each". 

Hope this helps!

Amelia

[AmeliaG]

Hi @aesham,

I built off of your original example to show you how to set up the factory model tools. They are very similar to the regular tools, except in the model factory you add a "Grouping" field. This grouping field in your case is brand. This will create a separate forecast for each brand. You can think of grouping as "for each". 

Hope this helps!

Amelia

[AmeliaG]

Hi @aesham,

I built off of your original example to show you how to set up the factory model tools. They are very similar to the regular tools, except in the model factory you add a "Grouping" field. This grouping field in your case is brand. This will create a separate forecast for each brand. You can think of grouping as "for each". 

Hope this helps!

Amelia

[aesham]

Amelia,

This is perfect, thank you very much!

[AmeliaG]

For anyone on an earlier version, the following macro attachments will work in 10.6 and above

[AmeliaG]

Attached here is the workflow for 10.6