Forecasting tool

[Dhilip_Kumar]

Hi,

I have attached my sales data for last five year on month wise and I want the expected volume next 6 months. January month will be seasonal every year so how to include that as well on the prediction. I have used both ARIMA and ETS tools however I am not able to get reasonable sales volume for next six months, graph lines also straight and getting same values for all upcoming 6 months.

Please advice me.

[alexnajm]

I cannot help further on this - sorry! The output looks right though based on your current data. The huge spikes will be hard for any model to predict in my opinion

[Dhilip_Kumar]

@alexnajm . No worries. I am just curious to know about the PEAK volume predictions. 

Thanks a lot for your guidance and help on this!!!

[Dhilip_Kumar]

@alexnajm Sorry to bothering again, One last question on this workflow, Can we filter out each year January month data to predict upcoming January month sales volume. If so please advise me how to do that.

[alexnajm]

@Dhilip_Kumar I am sorry but this is going outside of my expertise.