General Discussions

Discuss a wide range of topics! Questions about the Alteryx Platform should be directed to the appropriate Product discussion forum.
Alteryx is here to help you solve your biggest data challenges. Read about the new Virtual Solution Center here.

Forecast with Prophet - MAPE is too high

7 - Meteor

Hello all,


I'm not sure if this is the correct place to ask this question. I need a forecast for the coming 2 weeks and I use Prophet, ARIMA and ETS to compare which one is doing better? 


I spent several hours and I ended with ~30% MAPE errors. ARIMA and ETS even not close, much worse. I tried all the possible options such as auto model, manual, changing the parameters, 90-10 or 80-20 train/test ratio, the historical value which I can start from 2014 or later. After I tried all these combinations, my success was ~30%. It is weird that any sample datasets I get <10% MAPE error, but my data as a real data, no success. 


I cannot share the data, however, I like to hear your suggestions.


NOTE: The dataset has categories. Because each category has its own behavior, I run the model per category. I'm not sure this is worked well, but one model for all, I may lose the seasonality.