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Challenge #24: ARIMA Time Series

Carlo_SKay
8 - Asteroid
 
bjkay30
8 - Asteroid

Here is my take.  Pretty simple and similar to others posted here.

 

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bjkay30_1-1576593053815.png

 

rmassambane
10 - Fireball
 
BradWerner
11 - Bolide
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24 Complete.png
KT2
7 - Meteor
Spoiler
 
Hjardine
8 - Asteroid

My forecast numbers are not matching the output and I'm not sure why. I replaced all nulls with the appropriate values, but still getting incorrect values. I even looked at other correct solutions and lined up my data with theirs, as well as the configuration of the Arima Model tool and they all match up, only thing that's different is the forecast numbers! Can someone help explain why I'm getting different results? Some of my forecasts are actually negative. Workflow is attached and below. 

 

Hjardine_0-1578059633588.png

JonathanW
8 - Asteroid

All done. Minor difference in confidence values

JonathanW_0-1578364577131.png

edgarl
8 - Asteroid
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edgarl_0-1579058721934.png
edgarl
8 - Asteroid

Hi Hjardine,

 

Looks like you need to sort the records in chronological order after the union tool as ARIMA assumes that your records are in weekly chronological order.

 

Example as attached.

johnemery
11 - Bolide

I spent about 10 minutes searching for why my results differed from the output in the start file. Turns out others pointed it out, too.

 

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