Time Series WorkFlow

[superjesse]

Hello there,

I've spent about 8 hours watching videos and trying all kinds of ways to get a TS model that looks good. I can't seem to get my predictions close to the actuals.

I set up a workflow based on a combo of videos. Can anyone maybe just look at the flow and give me any advice or pointers? 

I did a crosstab to aggregate the data. Do I even have to do a crosstab? My raw data is by date and transaction level. Could I just insert a 'year-month' column and feed the raw data into a model.

Thank you in advance.

[CharlieS · Accepted solution]

Time Series is not my strong suit, but It seems like there is some seasonality that needed to be accounted for in your estimation. In the ARIMA tool, I modified the seasonal component differencing and saw a significant change in model performance.

 

Alteryx documentation on the ARIMA tool recommends this online book Forecasting: Principals and Practice for "A detailed discussion of the ARIMA model, along with a description of the automated methods used in this tool".

[superjesse]

Thank you so much. This helped me out a lot.