ARIMA Model - Repeating same value in Forecast TS

[ramosfrencl]

Hi, guys!

I made a macro bath to create a Forecast TS predictive, using ARIMA model.

My data contain 3 fields - UF (state), Data (Date) and VB (value), 26 periods (months).

Anothers States (Estado) works fine, but it's repeating the value after ARIMA and
Predictive TS tools loaded the data.

Why its happening? All Arima option is standart setting.

Regards!

Andre

Br

[apathetichell]

is that second screen grab for estado AM?

[ramosfrencl]

Yes, the data (forecast print) is the AM state.

[CharlieS]

I think we need some more information about what your data looks like. Also, I love the idea of batching models, but I'd recommend using a filter for now to make sure we can see what's going on with each estado (what I assume become batches for the macro). 

It may be the case that some states don't have enough data for the models to forecast anything more than an average value without some customization in the model specification. 

[ramosfrencl]

Charlie, thanks for reply. 

Attach, follow the workflow.

[CharlieS · Accepted solution]

Thanks for sharing that workflow.

Now you're at the step where you need to start customizing the model specification for your particular application. The default settings on the ARIMA tools will forecast the average value, and it's up to you to tell the ARIMA tool how to move the forecast with autoregressive, differencing, and seasonality aspects to consider when the model is trained. 

With a few tweaks, the tools will absolutely respond to the inputs you provide:


For more information on the principles used in these tools, here's a great reference found in the documentation:
https://otexts.com/fpp2/

[ramosfrencl]

Very thanks, Charlie,

The book look amazing!! Thank you!