ARIMA Model - Repeating same value in Forecast TS

ramosfrencl

Hi, guys!

I made a macro bath to create a Forecast TS predictive, using ARIMA model.

My data contain 3 fields - UF (state), Data (Date) and VB (value), 26 periods (months).

Anothers States (Estado) works fine, but it's repeating the value after ARIMA and
Predictive TS tools loaded the data.

Why its happening? All Arima option is standart setting.

Regards!

Andre

Time Series

Accepted answers

CharlieS

Thanks for sharing that workflow.

Now you're at the step where you need to start customizing the model specification for your particular application. The default settings on the ARIMA tools will forecast the average value, and it's up to you to tell the ARIMA tool how to move the forecast with autoregressive, differencing, and seasonality aspects to consider when the model is trained.

With a few tweaks, the tools will absolutely respond to the inputs you provide:

For more information on the principles used in these tools, here's a great reference found in the documentation:
https://otexts.com/fpp2/

20220401-ARIMA_example.yxmd

All comments

apathetichell

is that second screen grab for estado AM?

ramosfrencl

Yes, the data (forecast print) is the AM state.

CharlieS

I think we need some more information about what your data looks like. Also, I love the idea of batching models, but I'd recommend using a filter for now to make sure we can see what's going on with each estado (what I assume become batches for the macro).

It may be the case that some states don't have enough data for the models to forecast anything more than an average value without some customization in the model specification.

ramosfrencl

Charlie, thanks for reply.

Attach, follow the workflow.

arima_exemple.yxzp

CharlieS

20220401-ARIMA_example.yxmd

ramosfrencl

Very thanks, Charlie,

The book look amazing!! Thank you!

Quick Links

This months top contributors

atcodedog05 19458

Qiu 15866

binu_acs 15708

MarqueeCrew 13708

apathetichell 13703