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Alteryx designer Discussions

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Forecasting future data based on ARIMA and ETS models

Hello,

 

I've to forecast the daily data based on ARIMA and ETS data(use the best based on TS Compare). I've 20 column fields. I've to forecast the 'id_subzone' field for next two months (daily all day) based on previous data. But, when I'm forecasting for 'id_subzone' field, I'm getting only few records forecasted. I'm attaching my alteryx workflow below.

 

How to customize ARIMA model for my' tiz_data.yxdb' for better accuracy of prediction.

 

 

 

 

Attaching the 'tiz_data.yxdb' input data

Alteryx
Alteryx

In the TS Forecasting tool, you need to adjust the number of periods you are forecasting in the future. The default is 6 periods, which is why you are only seeing a few rows returned

Hello @AndrewKramer 

 

Can I display more than 120 records from the output of  'TS Forecast' tool (after ETS tool). I'm getting only 60 records displayed from output of the TS Forecast tool

60 rec.PNG

Alteryx
Alteryx

I was able to successfully forecast 120 periods with the ETS tool in my Designer (2018.4). Can you double check you put 120 periods? Are there any notes in the log?

 

On another note, your forecast appears to be a straight line. You are likely using an Additive Error Type, with no Trend, Trend dampening, or Seasonality. This means that your Confidence Interval just gets larger with each period, but the forecasts are all the same. You may want to change your settings or possibly look at ARIMA.

 

See the screenshot on my side. Note you will likely need a lot of data to predict 120 periods into the future.

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