ETS|ARIMA Time Series Model - Period&Sub_Period Issue for Daily Forecast

[Elena_P]

Hi all, I recently started working for a first time with the Time Series Tools within Alteryx Designer and I've seen a lot of examples for Monthly predictions where Period=Year and Sub_Period=Month

However, when I try to set up the ETS/ARIMA model for Daily predictions I'm confused on what I see as Period&Sub-Period. I have the data for three months (Jan-March). I tried to have the date within the input in two different ways - in one field and in three separate fields for Year, Month, Day, but in both ways the result is the same.

Date Format Input (two options):

Output after TS Forecast:

The configuration I use within the ETS Tool:

Can someone help me with getting the correct daily periods within the forecast? Perhaps I need to change some settings within the Model or maybe change the input format but I tried a lot of different variants already, so any advice will be appreciated.

Thank you! 

[mceleavey]

Hi @Elena_P ,

Can you provide the data or a sample, rather than a picture, and the workflow so we can see your config?

Thanks,

M.

[gabrielvilella · Accepted solution]

Hi @Elena_P, when working with a daily (all days) frequency, the period represents the number of the week and the sub-period represents the day of the week. On your case it looks like you have 13 weeks and 6 days for that 13th week. Then the forecasted values starts on week 13 day 7. It does not matter what you have as date fields since you only use the target variable in ETS.

There is a way to change the starting period within the ETS > Other options tab > Series starting period, this will be used only for representation proposes. The number you insert there should match what you have on your dataset.