Time series forecasting for each group

[hansfinesse]

Given the following fields and values in a sales table: -

Year: 2007
Month: Jan
Product_Subcategory_Name: A
Product_Category: B
Territory_Name: C
Territory_Group: D
Sales: $100,000

Info about the data: It contains similar values from 2007 Jan to 2009 Jun and for each Product Category, Subcategory, Territory name and territory group the sales info is given.

How do I use time series forecasting to forecast the sales for 12 periods into the future for each combination of the 4 fields: Product_Subcategory_Name, Product_Category, Territory_Name and Territory_Group? Do I have to calculate the total sum for each field separately and then do the forecasting?

[mceleavey]

Hi @hansfinesse ,

can you please provide a dataset?

Thanks,

M.

[IraWatt]

Hey @hansfinesse, Have you checked out the Alteryx's TS Model Factory Tool? it can create "time series forecasting models for multiple groups at once". Then you can use the TS Forecast Factory Tool to forecast into the future with multiple models at once. 

The community has some good quick videos on the topic of forecasting here Interactive Lessons - Alteryx Community

[hansfinesse]

@mceleavey Attaching sample dataset

is it possible to get sales data 12 time periods into the future for each field?

[mceleavey · Accepted solution]

Hi @hansfinesse ,

the answer is no, not with the dataset you have provided. You have only provided one Year/Month sales figure for each category, and you would need historical data showing sales for each combination.

Once you have all historical data you can use a batch macro to loop through those combinations and run TS on each set, or you can download the TS Factory tools from the gallery which already do this:

https://community.alteryx.com/t5/Community-Gallery/TS-Model-Factory/ta-p/878750

https://community.alteryx.com/t5/Community-Gallery/TS-Forecast-Factory/ta-p/878748

M.

[hansfinesse]

@mceleavey I have the historical data and now I am using the TS Model Factory tool & the TS Forecast Factory tool to compute the forecasts.

Now what would constitute a set: is it Date, Field and Sum_Sales or Date, Fields 1 to 4 and Sum_Sales? 

[mceleavey]

@hansfinesse , a set would be a group of the variables, so whatever granular level you want to use for predictions.

So, if you want to see a forecast for each Territory, then that would be your group. If you want it broken down by Category and Territory then the combination would be your group.

M.