Challenge #24: ARIMA Time Series

[DemandEngineer]

I enjoyed this for the most part as I've never worked on forecasting with time-series data.

I thought I was going crazy or using the tools wrong... My High and Low forecast didn't match...  Then I finally gave up and checked the solution and it turns out the solution had the same values.  But these are different than the supplied Answer in the start file.  Please update the start file.

Does the ARIMA tool assume the data is sorted order already as it doesn't ask for a time field... only the frequency.

[SgdPackard810]

Quirky little challenge to solve the missing data at the beginning; simple ARIMA and TS Forecast tools thereafter (auto settings, no need to perform any seasonal or non-seasonal differencing to stationarize the data, we were told to use ARIMA so no need for holdout data and comparison against an ETS model). 

Had a little bit of trouble with my TS Plot tool, the decomposition plot was unavailable even though two full periods (2 years of 52 weeks) were present in the dataset. Would have liked that feature, used in conjunction with the ACF and PACF plots to help me manually agree to the settings chosen by Alteryx within the ARIMA tool. 

Oh well! Fun challenge all the same.

[JethroChen]

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[phottovy]

Another challenge down!

[JoePC]

Solution Attached

[AlexC2]

haven't used the Time Series tools much, great challenge to try it out.

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[Per]

Not too hard (until all the parameters need tweaking that is)

[Tokimatsu]

Solved.

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[liamholland]

Solution:

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[LHolmes]

Great fun! Love the interactive tour in the ARIMA I output anchor. Would be great for Alteryx to include some general good/bad ranges for the accuracy tests or provide in the documentation -  I though the results were more in the "fair" zone.

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