cancel
Showing results for
Did you mean:
Do you have the skills to make it to the top? Subscribe to our weekly challenges. Try your best to solve the problem, share your solution, and see how others tackled the same problem. We share our answer too.
Weekly Challenge
Do you have the skills to make it to the top? Subscribe to our weekly challenges. Try your best to solve the problem, share your solution, and see how others tackled the same problem. We share our answer too.
Unable to display your progress at this time. Please try again a little later, or contact an administrator if you continue to see this error.
Getting started with Designer? | Start your journey with our new Learning Path!

## Challenge #170: 2019 Grand Prix US - Heat 1

Meteor

I had some trouble with the ETS tool on this because i've never used that before (and i'm using 11.5, so the output didn't seem very intuitive to me).  I got to that point at around the 9 minute mark, so i'm pretty happy with myself, and I think the results are right in line with expectations:

Spoiler

Pulsar

Fun!!!

Spoiler

Made the most sense to me to crosstab to determine the nulls for each session, and then 2 multi-row formula tools to impute the average for the null values. A formula tool to summarize by year, then ETS, and then TS Forecast.

Easy peasy when there's not an audience of thousands watching
Quasar

I had the privilege to see this year's Grand Prix live, but it was still fun to pit myself against the clock for this challenge!

Solution:

Asteroid

[Need help] Could someone tell me about nonlinearity in Time Series?

Alexeryx version 2019.2.5.62427 - installed in the morning

ETS (Summer1 + Summer2) = 702.87

ETS (Summer1) + ETS (Summer2) = 356.67 + 339.68 = 696.35 <> ETS (Summer1 + Summer2)

On my mind the forecast of a sum it should be equal the sum of a forecasts.

For linear regression it is always true - linear regression could be shown as a kernel function.

I suggest that may be in two cases:

- because ETS returns not the Expected Value but 50% quantile - in this case I am affraid if I could relly in Alteryx forecasting module in my work.

- in TS Alteryx take different periods for Summer 1 and Summer 2 like Summer1 = sin (year / 5) and Summer2 = sin (year/7) and it find no single valid harmonic in the sum. It is guess - I know nothing about TS.

Asteroid
Spoiler
Alteryx

Fun challenge!

Spoiler
Meteor

Here's my attempt

Spoiler
Asteroid

Not fast, but I got it!   so glad I didn't have to do this in front of 5000 people...

Spoiler
Atom

Here is my solution. A little more lengthy than others. It is my first Alteryx workflow and my brain is still approaching these problems from a stored procedure point of view (which is a habit I recognize will dissipate over time...). Cheers!

Spoiler
Bolide

Was assuming it would take longer, but actually finished fairly quickly!