Challenge #170: 2019 Grand Prix US - Heat 1

[JSNelson08]

I had some trouble with the ETS tool on this because i've never used that before (and i'm using 11.5, so the output didn't seem very intuitive to me).  I got to that point at around the 9 minute mark, so i'm pretty happy with myself, and I think the results are right in line with expectations:

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[estherb47]

Fun!!!

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Made the most sense to me to crosstab to determine the nulls for each session, and then 2 multi-row formula tools to impute the average for the null values. A formula tool to summarize by year, then ETS, and then TS Forecast.


Easy peasy when there's not an audience of thousands watching 🙂

[ddiesel]

I had the privilege to see this year's Grand Prix live, but it was still fun to pit myself against the clock for this challenge!

Solution:

[klyuka]

[Need help] Could someone tell me about nonlinearity in Time Series?

Alexeryx version 2019.2.5.62427 - installed in the morning

ETS (Summer1 + Summer2) = 702.87

ETS (Summer1) + ETS (Summer2) = 356.67 + 339.68 = 696.35 <> ETS (Summer1 + Summer2)

On my mind the forecast of a sum it should be equal the sum of a forecasts.

For linear regression it is always true - linear regression could be shown as a kernel function.

I suggest that may be in two cases:

- because ETS returns not the Expected Value but 50% quantile - in this case I am affraid if I could relly in Alteryx forecasting module in my work. 🙂

- in TS Alteryx take different periods for Summer 1 and Summer 2 like Summer1 = sin (year / 5) and Summer2 = sin (year/7) and it find no single valid harmonic in the sum. It is guess - I know nothing about TS.

[Johnny_Analytics]

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[JamesMA]

Fun challenge!

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[virajdeshpande]

Here's my attempt

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[pjdit]

Not fast, but I got it!   so glad I didn't have to do this in front of 5000 people...  

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[PatrickO]

Here is my solution. A little more lengthy than others. It is my first Alteryx workflow and my brain is still approaching these problems from a stored procedure point of view (which is a habit I recognize will dissipate over time...). Cheers!

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[ggruccio]

Was assuming it would take longer, but actually finished fairly quickly!