Weekly Challenge

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Challenge #140: Prove the Birthday Paradox!

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Asteroid

Here is my solution

challenge_140.jpg

Alteryx Partner
 
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Asteroid

Solved. Bit lengthy and complex, but gets the job done.

 

 

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Magnetar
Magnetar

My solution!

 

NOTE: Was way easier after I realized that "same birthday" meant people who celebrate their birthday on the same day, not people who were born the exact same day AND year. (In case you are wondering, the birthday paradox does not apply to scenario #2... though with a group size of 50, and an assumed average life expectancy of 75 years, turns out there is actually still a ~5% chance that two people were born on the exact same day!)

 

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WeeklyChallenge140.JPGShowing 50% probability that birthdays will be shared at a group size of 23... probability increases to 75% around group size of 32, and 90% at 41 people!Showing 50% probability that birthdays will be shared at a group size of 23... probability increases to 75% around group size of 32, and 90% at 41 people!

Cheers! And since the data seems to indicate there's a pretty good chance it's someone's birthday today with a Community this size... happy birthday, whoever you are! :)

 

NJ

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Alteryx Certified Partner

Again, loving the Interactive Chart tool. My solution below,

 

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WorkflowWorkflowMacroMacroChallenge 140 - Capture.PNG
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Alteryx Certified Partner

Here's my solution. I went for a batch macro. Really enjoyed this one!

 

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Main workflowMain workflowBatch macroBatch macroProbability scatter plotProbability scatter plot

 

 

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Alteryx Partner

Avoided using macros in order to solve this challenge, got a pretty elegant workflow regardless.

 

Preview of workflow:

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workflow.PNG

Preview of the results:

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Capture.PNG
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Alteryx Certified Partner
Alteryx Certified Partner

My solution

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Asteroid
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Challenge 140.PNG

Interesting practice

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Asteroid

Pushed this one pretty hard... Ran 100,000 simulations each for both Leap Years and Non Leap Years, then weighted the Leap Years 97/400 and non Leap Years 303/400 (Based on a prior calculated 400 year Leap Year cycle calculation). Then ran the precision out to 10 decimals! Had fun with this one!! With 100K simulations the curve smooths out pretty nicely.

 

Birthday duplicate curve.png