Challenge #132: When Will Community Hit 1,000,000 Posts?

Happy 3rd Anniversary Community! It has been a wild and crazy three years. Now let's see what the future of Community looks like. In the workflow, the data represents the number of posts posted on a monthly basis. Note that the first record contains a count of posts before 2017-01-01 and each record thereafter represents a month between 2017-01-01 and 2018-08-01. Your job is to forecast (ARIMA) in what future month Community will surpass the 1 Million post milestone using the high end of the 80% confidence interval (because we are optimists). Sound off what you got!

An Anniversary Worth Celebrating

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Preparation

Intermediate

Transform

Predictive

Accepted answers

All comments

patrick_digan

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I've got June of 2023, but that doesn't agree with the output so I may have overlooked something...

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kat

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neilgallen

I'm with everyone else. Different date result.

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ckings

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Unsure on this one. I got June 2023 coming in at 1009155.422276 posts. Wasn't a match to the projected answer so excited to see what the answer is! May have my configuration wrong?

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JoeM

Post updated (new expected answer matching above users)! I forgot to include the monthly data as a part of the running total.

.Face Palm

danilang

What they said!

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June, 2023

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Dan

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pjdit

Fun Challenge.. first time I've used those tools. always good to learn new tools..

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CharlieS

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I felt like doing some date formatting.

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TylerNa

I'm curious to see/know how close this prediction ends up being!

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lminors

Good challenge, making use of those Time Series tools which are amazingly simple! Completely forgot about the Running Total tool...

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unknown

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Ukashi

Thank for the challenge, fun one and quite informative

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StevenBetts

Hadn't used these tools before! Was good to get to grips with them.

Here's my solution

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clant

This was a good one, it always amazes me how easy the forecasting is in alteryx.

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KevinW

Here's my solution -

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NicoleJohnson

My solution!

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BONUS: I added a formula to calculate how many weeks to go until this joyous occasion... FYI, we should be on Weekly Challenge #378 by then, only 246 weeks to go. Let the countdown begin!!

Cheers!

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JoeM

@CharlieS - That output comment box image though!

GarthG

Fun challenge this week!

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jasperlch

Solution attached,

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scarey94

My Solution!

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ebarrus

My solution predicts June 2023

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ggruccio

Looks like I'm in good company!. @NicoleJohnson I'm looking forward to challenge #378!

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KOBoyle

Solution attached.

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OldDogNewTricks

Same result...

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CHarrison

Great challenge! Very best of luck to the community in the future too

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AKnutson11

Initially forgot to include the posts from January 2017 - August 2018, after that it checks out!

George_Walker

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Haven't used the forecast tools in while

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cbrettlockard

Certainly not the most efficient possible workflow, but I got there. (Some of my less efficient choices were on purpose, such as keeping actual counts as a separate field from forecasted counts, even though it meant a little more data prep and a marginally more complex formula.)