how to pick up a regression model and forecast future numbers

[KasiaH]

Hi Guys,

I use Alteryx for a while, but just started to use predictive tools. I want to create a mode and estimate the future rate
In my database I have given historical rate, correlated with the age, value and year. I also have future value and age but need to estimate the rate. (file attached)
To be honest I am not even sure how I should start. I tried to use numbers of regressions and then compared them but still I am not sure if this is correct way to do this. My workflow looks like that:

I have that model in excel, I used the trend line and pick up the best one and then used given formula to predict future outputs.
And it looks like that

Tried to recreate it and learn how to do something similar in the future – how to pick up the correct model and then how to predict the future numbers. Does anyone have a tip or idea?
Thanks!
Kasia

[ianwi]

Hi Kasia,

If you are looking for a guide to get started with predictive modeling, the Data Science Learning Path on community provides an overview of the modeling process, some Data Investigation techniques, and a quick overview of the algorithms available in Designer. That should give you a good baseline to decide which model(s) to experiment with and whether or not they are performing as you expect.