Time Series Forecasting

[aesham]

Hello,

I am trying to forecast next year's consumption of select brands of beer.  I have 13 annual periods of data.  I want to forecast the next's years based on the historical periods.  I need to do this for each brand.  

Based on the training videos and other posts, I know I want an ARIMA model.

When I do this, however, the output I receive is for all brands combined.  This is the output I am looking to produce; each historical year plus the forecasted year to the far right.

Brand	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	Estimate 2017
Samuel Adams Boston Lager	5,522	5,522	5,522	6,076	6,401	6,491	6,640	6,806	7,010	7,185	7,374	7,598	7,771	7,851
Sierra Nevada Pale Ale	2,390	2,390	2,390	2,437	2,372	2,562	2,780	3,052	3,302	3,269	3,425	3,548	3,723	3,880
Fat Tire Amber Ale	1,770	1,770	1,770	1,843	1,880	2,178	2,457	2,688	2,747	2,659	2,926	2,986	3,103	3,471
Shiner Bock	1,328	1,328	1,328	1,439	1,522	1,580	1,700	1,839	1,970	2,063	2,174	2,310	2,435	2,550
Total Craft Beer	53,303	53,303	53,303	53,303	53,303	57,895	64,125	74,189	85,282	94,492	105,643	120,528	137,697	138,851

An earlier post had the same issue and the solution offered was to use the TS Factory Tool.  I've downloaded the Predictive tool set but can find no TS Factory Tools.

Any help would be appreciated.  My workbook is attached.  I can do this in Tableau but would rather do in Alteryx.

Thank you, Andrew

[txl40]

I am sorry Amelia.  I am still getting the error telling me "this document was created by a more recent version of this application".

I went ahead and attached my attempt at using the forecast tools so we can work with the same file.

Let me know what you think.  I really appreciate your help!

[pmittal_25]

Hi Amelia,

Thanks for providing the inputs on using the Arima Model. I was wondering if you had a way to extract data out of the model by the grouping that we create? When I use the TS forecast it does not break the data by grouping, instead gives it by intervals specified.

[AmeliaG]

Hi @pmittal_25,

In my output from the Forecast Factory tool, the 'Group' field (whatever field you chose in the Model Factory tool) is in the output. Can you please check you are using the Forecast Factory tool?

[MichaelSu]

Hi Aesham,

I was wondering if you could please share the input data so that we can run the workflow.

Thanks,

Mike

[MAAbdullahAlMubarah]

Hi, Can You share with us the Source data cuz I tried to run the workflow but still it looks for the data and stop running, thank you.

[saikathalder]

Hello Amelia,

I have the same problem. I have 10000 SKUs, the sales history is on weekly basis of 3 years. I want to predict the sales forecast of all those SKUs for next 4 weeks or 13 weeks..

Can you tell me, If I can use the same logic?

I have alteryx designer version 2018.4.5.55178, and tableau desktop in my machine.

Do you think this huge data can be processed by Alteryx?

I can provide sample data as well. Let me know. Thanks.