Alteryx Designer

Find answers, ask questions, and share expertise about Alteryx Designer.
Register for the upcoming Live Community Q&A Session - and don't forget to submit your questions for @DeanS regarding the future role of analytics here.

Predictive Modelling with Rare Events

5 - Atom

Hello all, 


I am currently in the process of building a few predictive models to help answer the following questions:

- Which current season ticket holders will renew? 

- Who will buy a hospitality product? 

- Who will buy a match ticket/season ticket? 


For the latter two questions, I am suffering from rare event bias. This is because the number of e.g. hospitality purchasers relative to non-purchasers is tiny; around 500 purchasers relative to a population of 1M (average propensity: 0.0005). Using a standard probability threshold of 0.5 leads to a confusion matrix failing to predict any actual historical purchasers. 


There are lots of articles around this problem - -  but I can't seem to find a specific Alteryx fix. 


Does anyone have any comments on best practice and Alteryx specific tips and tricks, which can still lead to sensicle probabilities at the end? Thanks!