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Time Series Forecasting

Asteroid

Hello,

 

I am trying to forecast next year's consumption of select brands of beer.  I have 13 annual periods of data.  I want to forecast the next's years based on the historical periods.  I need to do this for each brand.  

 

Based on the training videos and other posts, I know I want an ARIMA model.

 

When I do this, however, the output I receive is for all brands combined.  This is the output I am looking to produce; each historical year plus the forecasted year to the far right.

 

Brand2004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016Estimate 2017
Samuel Adams Boston Lager5,5225,5225,5226,0766,4016,4916,6406,8067,0107,1857,3747,5987,7717,851
Sierra Nevada Pale Ale2,3902,3902,3902,4372,3722,5622,7803,0523,3023,2693,4253,5483,7233,880
Fat Tire Amber Ale1,7701,7701,7701,8431,8802,1782,4572,6882,7472,6592,9262,9863,1033,471
Shiner Bock1,3281,3281,3281,4391,5221,5801,7001,8391,9702,0632,1742,3102,4352,550
Total Craft Beer53,30353,30353,30353,30353,30357,89564,12574,18985,28294,492105,643120,528137,697138,851

 

An earlier post had the same issue and the solution offered was to use the TS Factory Tool.  I've downloaded the Predictive tool set but can find no TS Factory Tools.

 

Any help would be appreciated.  My workbook is attached.  I can do this in Tableau but would rather do in Alteryx.

 

Thank you, Andrew

 

 

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Alteryx
Alteryx

Hi @aesham,

 

Thanks for your question! They are  not in the predictive download, but you can download the TS Factory forecast tools from the Alteryx Analytics Gallery. 

 

I've linked them below:

 

TS Model Factory

TS Forecast Factory

TS Factory Sample

 

Hope you have a great day!

 

Amelia

Asteroid

Thanks for the links Amelia.

 

It's pretty deep for me; hoping someone can help me out with the solution.  I've posted the desired output.

Alteryx
Alteryx

Hi @aesham,

 

I built off of your original example to show you how to set up the factory model tools. They are very similar to the regular tools, except in the model factory you add a "Grouping" field. This grouping field in your case is brand. This will create a separate forecast for each brand. You can think of grouping as "for each". 

 

Hope this helps!

 

Amelia

Alteryx
Alteryx

Hi @aesham,

 

I built off of your original example to show you how to set up the factory model tools. They are very similar to the regular tools, except in the model factory you add a "Grouping" field. This grouping field in your case is brand. This will create a separate forecast for each brand. You can think of grouping as "for each". 

 

Hope this helps!

 

Amelia

Alteryx
Alteryx

Hi @aesham,

 

I built off of your original example to show you how to set up the factory model tools. They are very similar to the regular tools, except in the model factory you add a "Grouping" field. This grouping field in your case is brand. This will create a separate forecast for each brand. You can think of grouping as "for each". 

 

Hope this helps!

 

Amelia

Alteryx
Alteryx

Hi @aesham,

 

I built off of your original example to show you how to set up the factory model tools. They are very similar to the regular tools, except in the model factory you add a "Grouping" field. This grouping field in your case is brand. This will create a separate forecast for each brand. You can think of grouping as "for each". 

 

Hope this helps!

 

Amelia

Asteroid

Amelia,

 

This is perfect, thank you very much!

Alteryx
Alteryx

For anyone on an earlier version, the following macro attachments will work in 10.6 and above

Alteryx
Alteryx

Attached here is the workflow for 10.6

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