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TS Forecast factory - Period not accurate

tcrowley128
7 - Meteor
Hi, I am having an issue with the TS forecast factory generating Periods that match the expected result. I set the TS Model factory to start the time series July 2019 and the TS Forecast factory does not follow the sequential years for the 12 months I'd like to forecast. Below is a screen shot of the TS Forecast Factory output. You can see the years in Period are totally random. Other Groups also have random years like 2142, nothing following a sequential order. This is the input to the TS Model factory before inputting to the TS Forecast factory. Greatly appreciate any help! Tyler
6 REPLIES 6
BrandonB
Alteryx
Alteryx

Hi @tcrowley128 

 

If you are grouping by Country, are you sorting your data using a sort tool by country then by date prior to running it in to the TS Model Factory tool? Also, if the model is being run on the Country column, you may need to aggregate your data by Country by Month first as well if you have one January for Mexico and BMW and one January for Mexico and Porsche as an example.

tcrowley128
7 - Meteor

Hi @BrandonB thanks for the suggestions!  I tried to do both of those things but the period and sub periods are still off. Any other ideas? 

 

This screen shot is what my data looks like after the aggregation and sort 

 

clipboard_image_0.png

BrandonB
Alteryx
Alteryx

The issue is that you have multiple rows for a given time period record based on the level of grouping that you are trying to run the models on. You have your grouping field set as Country in your TS Model Factory tool, but there are multiple values in the Group column for a given country. For example, row 1 is BMW in Canada for the month of April in 2015. Row 6 is Daimler in Canada for the month of April in 2015. When you feed this in with Country as the grouping field, you have multiple rows for April 2015 for Canada.

 

If you want to look at a sales forecast on the country level, you need to summarize saying group by month, group by country, group by date, group by year, and sum sales where the "Group" column is disregarded. I think what you might be looking to do is create models not only for the country but also the Group (BMW, Daimler, etc). If this is the case, maybe try creating a new column using the formula tool called Grouping Field and for your formula say [Country]+[Group] to create a new concatenated field. The idea is to then use this field as your grouping field in the TS Model Factory tool.

tcrowley128
7 - Meteor
Thank you for the answer. I'll give it a try and let you know!

Best regards

Tyler Crowley

Business Services - Business Process Integration (RBNA/BSV2)
Robert Bosch LLC | 38000 Hills Tech Dr. | Farmington Hills, MI 48331 | USA | www.bosch.us
Mobile +1 843 834-6386 | Tyler.Crowley@us.bosch.com
tcrowley128
7 - Meteor

@BrandonB  Thanks for the answer. I'll give it a try and let you know!

tcrowley128
7 - Meteor

That worked! Thank you @BrandonB 

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