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Alteryx designer Discussions

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Forecasting gone wrong!

Alteryx Partner

Hi Community,


I have the following result after running an ARIMA model with the TS tools, does anyone know why this might be happening?









Alteryx Certified Partner

ARIMA may not be the type of modeling that you need here.  What's happened is the ARIMA model is super poor, and is instead reverting to a mean.  The model isn't capturing any repeatable pattern in the data.


Instead you may want to try a Linear Regression with some sort of seasonal adjustment.