Forecasting tool

Hi,

I have attached my sales data for last five year on month wise and I want the expected volume next 6 months. January month will be seasonal every year so how to include that as well on the prediction. I have used both ARIMA and ETS tools however I am not able to get reasonable sales volume for next six months, graph lines also straight and getting same values for all upcoming 6 months.

Please advice me.

Sales Data.xlsx

Forecasting - ARIMA.yxmd

Forecasting - ETS.yxmd

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danilang

Hi @Dhilip_Kumar

In your Arima workflow your had [Year] selected as your target in the Arima tool. Change it to [Sales]. The data in your sample file doesn't match up with what the ETS workflow is expecting so I can't help you with that one.

Dan

alexnajm

@Dhilip_Kumar same issue with ETS - make sure you select Sales as your target field!

Dhilip_Kumar

@danilang @alexnajm Thank you for your suggestion.

I have made necessary changes on both workflows and attached the same. Please have a look at it.

For ETS, still if the sample data not fit means please advice me the how the input data require for this tool so that I can be able to get it.

Actually the predict value required for Jan to Jun however the forecasting result shown for Nov to Apr.

Forecasting - ARIMA.yxmd

Forecasting - ETS.yxmd

alexnajm

@Dhilip_Kumar You are missing two months of data - 11/2021 and 12/2021. Use the TS Filler tool to fill these in. I might also consider using a Formula to get an actual date column - DateTimeParse(ToString([Year])+"-"+ToString([Month])+"-01","%Y-%m-%d") will work

Dhilip_Kumar

@alexnajm Thank you so much. It is working perfectly now.

@danilang @alexnajm Once again thank you both!!!

alexnajm

Happy to help - please mark the solution(s) that helped you the most! Multiple can be selected. Thank you in advance!

Dhilip_Kumar

@alexnajm @danilang Hi Again,

Thank you for your guidance on Monthly forecasting. Now I am looking for day wise forecasting for next one month using last three year data. I have tried to use the same formula however I didn't get reasonable result, On my data some of the days has not sales so it was not there and sales not happen on weekends and holidays as well how can I exclude these conditions on my workflow. I have attached my input file for your reference. Please advise me.

Sales Data - 2019-2021.xlsx

alexnajm

You have a "Daily (weekdays only)" option available in both the ETS and ARIMA tools. But you still need to make sure you have data for all dates - use a TS Filler to generate those dates, then some sort of Imputation/Multi-Row Formula to fill in those null values with something (your choice, but one suggestion could be using the sales from the day prior)

Dhilip_Kumar

@alexnajm Thank you for your explanation.

I have tried this method however I got huge difference on Sales by Forecasting method vs Actual Sales. Also every January is our PEAK so we get high number of sales so how can we include that as well.. I have attached my workflow for you reference please have a look at it and advise me where I miss.

ARIMA Method - Daily.yxmd

alexnajm

I cannot help further on this - sorry! The output looks right though based on your current data. The huge spikes will be hard for any model to predict in my opinion

Dhilip_Kumar

@alexnajm . No worries. I am just curious to know about the PEAK volume predictions.

Thanks a lot for your guidance and help on this!!!

alexnajm

@Dhilip_Kumar I am sorry but this is going outside of my expertise.

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